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| Thema | Klimawandel verschärft Hochwasserereignisse in Deutschland | 10 Beiträge | ||
| Autor | Hans8-Jo8ach8im 8Z., Berlin / Berlin | 852901 | ||
| Datum | 05.11.2019 03:23 MSG-Nr: [ 852901 ] | 1091 x gelesen | ||
| Infos: | ||||
Geschrieben von Dirk S. Wenn man Wetter annähernd für drei Tage vorhersagen kann, wie will man das Klima für die nächsten Jahre vorhersagen?! Das Klima für die nächsten 3 Jahre kann man nicht vorhersagen, wohl aber das für die nächsten 30. Kurzzeitig erzeugt Wetter immer die größeren Ausschläge als das Klima. Das Klima für 2200 wurde schon 1895 gar nicht mal soo ungenau vorhergesagt. Svante Arrhenius (das iss so'n toter Nobelpreisträger) hat damals abgeschätzt, daß sich die Welt bei einer Verdoppelung des CO2-Gehalts in der Atmosphäre um 4 bis 6 Grad erwärmen werde. Dafür benötigte er keine meteorologischen Zeitreihen, sondern an erster Stelle Kenntnisse in Chemie und Physik. Vor 100 Jahren gab es mehrere Veröffentlichungen dazu, das war schon damals kein Geheimnis, die Wissenschaftler von 1895 oder 1920 konnten sich aber nicht wirklich vorstellen, wie schnell die Menschheit den Ausstoß erhöhen würde. Deshalb gibt es aus dieser Zeit Fachartikel, die den Zusammenhang beschreiben, aber keine Warnungen. Zum Warnen waren ja noch ein paar hundert Jahre Zeit. ;-) Nun zum Wetter: The past two weeks were a harrowing time in Sonoma County, but not a deadly one. Hurricane-force winds shot flames across hillsides. Highways were jammed with panicky people fleeing the fire. Smoke choked the air for days while half the countys population more than 250,000 people huddled in the dark after PG&E cut power to prevent its electrical lines from falling and sparking new blazes. A kind of postapocalyptic reality set in. But unlike last year, when the Camp Fire in Butte County killed 85 people, and the year before, when 40 people died in the Wine Country firestorm, the 78,000-acre Kincade Fire didnt claim a single life not one. The reasons vary, from the nature of the fire to the communitys response and the sheer will of the firefighters. The upshot, though, was that a lot was different this year mostly for the better. For us, it was personal, said Cyndi Foreman, battalion chief fire marshal of the Sonoma County Fire District, who saw 13 people die in her jurisdiction during the 2017 fires. We werent going to let that happen again. ... Everybodys heart and soul was into kicking this fires butt. But even before Foremans crew battled feverishly to save her hometown of Windsor which would prove the turning point in the Kincade Fire several differences had already emerged between this blaze and the ones before it. Forecasting On the night of Oct. 23, when the Kincade Fire ignited in the hills above Geyserville, it was no secret that strong winds were coming and danger loomed. Radio and TV stations repeatedly warned of severe weather, while Pacific Gas and Electric Co. turned to its latest safety strategy: precautionary power shut-offs. Everyone was bracing for fire. While fire forecasts are nothing new, meteorology has made huge strides in recent years. The reports this time benefited from enhanced modeling speeds and newer weather satellites, including the federal governments GOES-16 and GOES-17 spacecraft. California forecasters were able to project the strong winds that blasted the North Bay at speeds close to 100 mph a week before they arrived. And they were able to pinpoint where they were going to blow. Instead of these big blocks of prediction for temperature and winds, the modeling has been ratcheted down to cover 2 or 3 square miles, said Brent Wachter, fire meteorologist at the Northern California Geographic Area Coordination Center in Redding, a joint federal and state fire operation. We were picking up on anomalies like the winds on high mountain ridges that occurred near Mount St. Helena. State and local officials werent taking the forecasts lightly. Across California, firefighters were put on high alert. Dozens of strike crews with Cal Fire, the states fire agency, waited in high-risk forests and grasslands in case a fire sparked. Air tankers were readied for flight. Bryan Baker, a pilot for DynCorp, which is contracted to provide Cal Fires air support, was at work 3½ hours early on the morning of the Kincade Fire. Based at the Sacramento McClellan Airport, he would be one of the first to begin dropping retardant on the fast-moving blaze. From my vantage point, I dont know what else could have been done to prepare, he said. Quelle: San Francisco Chronicle Falls das jemandem zu Englisch sein sollte: Ich hab's testweise durch translate.google.com geschickt, und auch dieses Programm macht große Fortschritte. Etwas unbeholfenes Deutsch, wenige Wörter falsch, insgesamt durchaus verständlich. Da kenne ich von früher ganz andere Ergebnisse. Ciao Hans-Joachim | ||||
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